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地震预警系统 Earthquake Early Warning Systems

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wangjianping 发表于 2009-2-13 16:07:04 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 三T上人 于 2015-11-8 14:56 编辑 <br /><br />Paolo Gasparini
Gaetano Manfredi
Jochen Zschau
(Editors)
Earthquake Early
Warning Systems
With 153 Figures
springer

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 楼主| wangjianping 发表于 2009-2-13 16:08:06 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 三T上人 于 2015-11-8 14:56 编辑 <br /><br />Preface
In the last few decades economic losses due to natural disasters have increased
exponentially worldwide and little progress has been seen in reducing
their rate of fatalities. This also holds for earthquake disasters and
is mainly due to increasing population and industrial density in high hazard
and vulnerability areas. Although the prediction of earthquakes is not yet
practicable, current technology allows prompt identification of the onset of
any dangerous seismic event. Hence early warning and rapid disaster information
systems are becoming important means for strengthening prevention
and social resilience against the adverse effects of major natural
events and should therefore become the keystones of disaster mitigation.
The term early warning is now widely used with various meanings in scientific,
economic and sociological communities. Even in the scientific
world the term is used in slightly different ways although there is a growing
consensus in defining early warning as all the action that can be taken
during the lead time of a catastrophic event. The lead time is defined as the
time elapsing between the moment when the occurrence of a catastrophic
event in a given place is reasonably certain and the moment it actually occurs.
Typical lead times are of the orders of seconds to tens of seconds for
earthquakes, minutes to hours for tsunamis, and hours to days for landslides,
floods and volcanic eruptions.
In more general terms, early warning is the provision of timely and effective
information, through identified institutions, allowing individuals
exposed to a hazard to take action in order to avoid or reduce their risk and
prepare for effective response.
Although the definition of lead time for non-seismic hazards may be
ambiguous (the term “reasonably certain” may need a more precise probabilistic
definition), for earthquakes the definition is unequivocal as the
lead time will start when the first waves are released by the earthquake
source. Indeed, the physical basis for earthquake early warning is simple:
strong ground shaking is caused by shear-waves and by the subsequent
surface waves which travel at about half the speed of the primary waves
and much slower than electromagnetic signals transmitted wireless and/or
by cable. Thus, depending on the distance of a strong earthquake from the
endangered urban area, transmission of information and real-time analysis
of the fast primary wave may provide warnings from a few seconds to a
few tens of seconds before the arrival of strong ground shaking. This may
be used to minimize property damage and loss of life in urban areas and to
aid emergency response. When a suitable seismic network is available fast

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 楼主| wangjianping 发表于 2009-2-13 16:08:42 | 显示全部楼层
processing methods can be applied to locate an earthquake, determine the
magnitude, and estimate the distribution of ground motion (regional approach).
At a site or structure equipped with seismic sensors, a site-specific
warning is possible using the first low amplitude arrivals (P-waves) to infer
the motion due to the following high amplitude shear and superficial
waves (on-site approach).
The application of earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) can be
very effective in real time risk mitigation, enhancing the safety margin of
specific critical engineered systems such as nuclear power plants, lifelines
or transportation infrastructures by reducing the exposure of the facility
with automated safety actions. The early warning system can be used to
trigger the orderly shutdown of pipelines and gas lines to avoid fires, or the
shutdown of manufacturing operations to reduce both potential damage to
equipment and industrial accidents. Also, personal safety might be enhanced
if people were alerted. In addition, the functions of modern society
will be less likely to turn chaotic if an early earthquake alert is available
and if training of appropriate actions has been performed. Last not least,
emergency response teams may be dispatched where they are needed most
if maps of strong ground shaking can be provided by the early warning
system within a few minutes.
In addition, seismic early warning systems can be of great value in reducing
damage and loss due to secondary events triggered by earthquakes.
These may include landslides, tsunamis, fires and industrial accidents. The
fires that devastated San Francisco after the 1906 earthquake and the tsunami
of December 2004 in Indonesia are two classic cases, but in most of
the major earthquakes economic losses and human casualties have been
enhanced by secondary phenomena.
Despite the above considerations, at present the potential of seismic
early warning methods is not fully used. This is not only true for developing
countries but also for highly industrialized countries including those of
Europe.
Most existing seismological processing methods have not been developed
or optimized for real-time or near real-time applications as required
for early warning. The development of real-time analysis, modeling and
simulation methods, their integration with appropriate facilities for data
processing, visualization and rapid information systems and their application
to earthquake early warning in conjunction with disaster management
is, therefore, one of the major challenges of today’s seismology.
All of these issues were raised and discussed during a workshop held in
Naples, Italy, on September 23-25 2004, focusing on “Seismic Early
Warning for European Cities: toward a coordinated effort to raise the level
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 楼主| wangjianping 发表于 2009-2-13 16:09:12 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 三T上人 于 2015-11-8 14:56 编辑 <br /><br />of basic knowledge”. The workshop was organized in the framework of
the EC FP 6 SSA Project “Natural Risk Assessment (NaRAs)”. Researchers
attending the meeting from eight European countries (France, Germany,
Greece, Iceland, Italy, Portugal, Switzerland, Turkey), United
States, Japan and Taiwan unanimously approved a recommendation submitted
to the European Commission, stressing the still unresolved basic
questions for full application of earthquake early warning to society’s
needs and asking for future calls to contain specific reference to seismic
early warning methods.
This book is mostly based on the articles that were presented at the
workshop. Given the long time needed to collect all of them, they have
since been updated. They were written in their final form at the end of
2006.
The short review by Hiroo Kanamori points out the main problems for
automatic application of earthquake early warning to real time risk reduction.
One of the basic problems in seismic early warning is the development
of real-time algorithms for fast determination of earthquake source parameters
and the estimation of their reliability. This includes the problems
of real-time event detection and location, real-time fault mapping as well
as new approaches for fast magnitude/moment determinations based on
strong motion data, modern seismic array technology and the concept of
energy magnitude. The latter promises to be extremely useful for estimating
the size of mega-events. The scientific and technological challenge is
to obtain this kind of information only a few seconds after the first P-wave
arrivals. Classic seismic processing tools still need larger portions of a
seismogram and are thus not suited to this purpose.
A group of five papers deals with the above problems. In particular, the
paper by Stefan Nielsen discusses from a theoretical viewpoint whether reliable
information on the size of an earthquake can be obtained from processing
the waves released at the onset of a fracture. The paper by Richard
Allen discusses the ElarmS system based on the processing of first P-wave
arrivals to predict ground motion at different sites. Aldo Zollo and Maria
Lancieri use an earthquake database to simulate real-time magnitude determination
from the Earthquake Early warning system implemented in the
Campania Apennines. They identify the parameters most robustly correlated
with moment magnitude. Maren B&ouml;se et al. present the PreSEIS (preseismic
shaking) method they developed and applied to the Istanbul case.
The method is based on an artificial neural network and is as fast as the onsite
warning approach, because it combines information from several sensors
within small seismic subnets with apertures of about one hundred
kilometers to estimate source parameters from the first few seconds of

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 楼主| wangjianping 发表于 2009-2-13 16:10:38 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 三T上人 于 2015-11-8 14:56 编辑 <br /><br />of basic knowledge”. The workshop was organized in the framework of
the EC FP 6 SSA Project “Natural Risk Assessment (NaRAs)”. Researchers
attending the meeting from eight European countries (France, Germany,
Greece, Iceland, Italy, Portugal, Switzerland, Turkey), United
States, Japan and Taiwan unanimously approved a recommendation submitted
to the European Commission, stressing the still unresolved basic
questions for full application of earthquake early warning to society’s
needs and asking for future calls to contain specific reference to seismic
early warning methods.
This book is mostly based on the articles that were presented at the
workshop. Given the long time needed to collect all of them, they have
since been updated. They were written in their final form at the end of
2006.
The short review by Hiroo Kanamori points out the main problems for
automatic application of earthquake early warning to real time risk reduction.
One of the basic problems in seismic early warning is the development
of real-time algorithms for fast determination of earthquake source parameters
and the estimation of their reliability. This includes the problems
of real-time event detection and location, real-time fault mapping as well
as new approaches for fast magnitude/moment determinations based on
strong motion data, modern seismic array technology and the concept of
energy magnitude. The latter promises to be extremely useful for estimating
the size of mega-events. The scientific and technological challenge is
to obtain this kind of information only a few seconds after the first P-wave
arrivals. Classic seismic processing tools still need larger portions of a
seismogram and are thus not suited to this purpose.
A group of five papers deals with the above problems. In particular, the
paper by Stefan Nielsen discusses from a theoretical viewpoint whether reliable
information on the size of an earthquake can be obtained from processing
the waves released at the onset of a fracture. The paper by Richard
Allen discusses the ElarmS system based on the processing of first P-wave
arrivals to predict ground motion at different sites. Aldo Zollo and Maria
Lancieri use an earthquake database to simulate real-time magnitude determination
from the Earthquake Early warning system implemented in the
Campania Apennines. They identify the parameters most robustly correlated
with moment magnitude. Maren B&ouml;se et al. present the PreSEIS (preseismic
shaking) method they developed and applied to the Istanbul case.
The method is based on an artificial neural network and is as fast as the onsite
warning approach, because it combines information from several sensors
within small seismic subnets with apertures of about one hundred
kilometers to estimate source parameters from the first few seconds of

澳门葡京娱|乐|城:国际品牌╕顶_级_信_誉
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 楼主| wangjianping 发表于 2009-2-13 16:10:54 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 三T上人 于 2015-11-8 14:56 编辑 <br /><br />of basic knowledge”. The workshop was organized in the framework of
the EC FP 6 SSA Project “Natural Risk Assessment (NaRAs)”. Researchers
attending the meeting from eight European countries (France, Germany,
Greece, Iceland, Italy, Portugal, Switzerland, Turkey), United
States, Japan and Taiwan unanimously approved a recommendation submitted
to the European Commission, stressing the still unresolved basic
questions for full application of earthquake early warning to society’s
needs and asking for future calls to contain specific reference to seismic
early warning methods.
This book is mostly based on the articles that were presented at the
workshop. Given the long time needed to collect all of them, they have
since been updated. They were written in their final form at the end of
2006.
The short review by Hiroo Kanamori points out the main problems for
automatic application of earthquake early warning to real time risk reduction.
One of the basic problems in seismic early warning is the development
of real-time algorithms for fast determination of earthquake source parameters
and the estimation of their reliability. This includes the problems
of real-time event detection and location, real-time fault mapping as well
as new approaches for fast magnitude/moment determinations based on
strong motion data, modern seismic array technology and the concept of
energy magnitude. The latter promises to be extremely useful for estimating
the size of mega-events. The scientific and technological challenge is
to obtain this kind of information only a few seconds after the first P-wave
arrivals. Classic seismic processing tools still need larger portions of a
seismogram and are thus not suited to this purpose.
A group of five papers deals with the above problems. In particular, the
paper by Stefan Nielsen discusses from a theoretical viewpoint whether reliable
information on the size of an earthquake can be obtained from processing
the waves released at the onset of a fracture. The paper by Richard
Allen discusses the ElarmS system based on the processing of first P-wave
arrivals to predict ground motion at different sites. Aldo Zollo and Maria
Lancieri use an earthquake database to simulate real-time magnitude determination
from the Earthquake Early warning system implemented in the
Campania Apennines. They identify the parameters most robustly correlated
with moment magnitude. Maren B&ouml;se et al. present the PreSEIS (preseismic
shaking) method they developed and applied to the Istanbul case.
The method is based on an artificial neural network and is as fast as the onsite
warning approach, because it combines information from several sensors
within small seismic subnets with apertures of about one hundred
kilometers to estimate source parameters from the first few seconds of

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 楼主| wangjianping 发表于 2009-2-13 16:11:10 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 三T上人 于 2015-11-8 14:57 编辑 <br /><br />seismic recordings. Satriano et al. present an evolutionary method for realtime
location based on the equal differential time formulation and a probabilistic
approach.
Along with the development of appropriate real-time algorithms, it is
crucial to develop a strategy for rapidly communicating the obtained seismic
information not only to the disaster managers, but also to other interested
parties from civil protection, politics, media, science and the public.
The warning time involved in this task may, however, have to be extended
to minutes, tens of minutes or more. Of special importance for emergency
planners will be the concept of the virtual seismologist, which takes into
account pre-existing information to estimate and possibly reduce the uncertainties
of source parameter determinations, and which, in particular,
can deduce from the source parameter information specific decision support
for disaster management, as discussed in the paper by Georgia Cua
and Thomas Heaton.
The evolutionary method and the virtual seismologist concept are very
useful for providing continuously upgraded real-time alert maps and predicted
shake maps within seconds and minutes as well as maps of measured
ground shaking within a few minutes after the event. The development
of proper attenuation algorithms, as discussed by Vincenzo
Convertito et al., is crucial in order to also account for site corrections in
such maps. Maps of expected ground motion before a catastrophic event
for various scenarios are useful information to design the way effects of
ground vibrations on structures can be reduced as well as for fast map calibration
once the event occurs. 3D simulations of ground response and the
key parameters needed to optimize the probabilistic approach are discussed
by Jean Virieux et al.
Earthquake Early Warning Systems are efficient tools in urban areas
where a significant portion of the buildings are structurally deficient. In
cases where the seismic source zone is clearly known and sufficiently far
away, the population can be warned by radio, television, etc. Operation of
critical facilities and processes can be stopped. In the case of very short
pre-warning times of a few seconds, it is still possible to slow down trains,
to switch traffic lights to red, to close valves in gas and oil pipelines, to release
a SCRAM in nuclear power plants, etc. Early warning systems can
also be used to alarm the population where rapid response is needed. A
typical example would be to issue the so-called water alarm, i.e. alarming
the population living in the downstream region of a large dam. Early warning
systems are useful for facilities and processes, such as nuclear power
plants, high speed trains, gas mains and highways, where rapid response
can contribute to reduction in the seismic risk.

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 楼主| wangjianping 发表于 2009-2-13 16:11:54 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 三T上人 于 2015-11-8 14:57 编辑 <br /><br />seismic recordings. Satriano et al. present an evolutionary method for realtime
location based on the equal differential time formulation and a probabilistic
approach.
Along with the development of appropriate real-time algorithms, it is
crucial to develop a strategy for rapidly communicating the obtained seismic
information not only to the disaster managers, but also to other interested
parties from civil protection, politics, media, science and the public.
The warning time involved in this task may, however, have to be extended
to minutes, tens of minutes or more. Of special importance for emergency
planners will be the concept of the virtual seismologist, which takes into
account pre-existing information to estimate and possibly reduce the uncertainties
of source parameter determinations, and which, in particular,
can deduce from the source parameter information specific decision support
for disaster management, as discussed in the paper by Georgia Cua
and Thomas Heaton.
The evolutionary method and the virtual seismologist concept are very
useful for providing continuously upgraded real-time alert maps and predicted
shake maps within seconds and minutes as well as maps of measured
ground shaking within a few minutes after the event. The development
of proper attenuation algorithms, as discussed by Vincenzo
Convertito et al., is crucial in order to also account for site corrections in
such maps. Maps of expected ground motion before a catastrophic event
for various scenarios are useful information to design the way effects of
ground vibrations on structures can be reduced as well as for fast map calibration
once the event occurs. 3D simulations of ground response and the
key parameters needed to optimize the probabilistic approach are discussed
by Jean Virieux et al.
Earthquake Early Warning Systems are efficient tools in urban areas
where a significant portion of the buildings are structurally deficient. In
cases where the seismic source zone is clearly known and sufficiently far
away, the population can be warned by radio, television, etc. Operation of
critical facilities and processes can be stopped. In the case of very short
pre-warning times of a few seconds, it is still possible to slow down trains,
to switch traffic lights to red, to close valves in gas and oil pipelines, to release
a SCRAM in nuclear power plants, etc. Early warning systems can
also be used to alarm the population where rapid response is needed. A
typical example would be to issue the so-called water alarm, i.e. alarming
the population living in the downstream region of a large dam. Early warning
systems are useful for facilities and processes, such as nuclear power
plants, high speed trains, gas mains and highways, where rapid response
can contribute to reduction in the seismic risk.

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 楼主| wangjianping 发表于 2009-2-13 16:12:14 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 三T上人 于 2015-11-8 14:57 编辑 <br /><br />In addition to such immediate uses, further development of an early
warning system may include the implementation of semi-active interfaces
with infrastructures that can use the early warning information for realtime
risk reduction. For example, construction companies in Japan are developing
buildings with semi-active control systems. The buildings can
change their mechanical properties within a few seconds to better withstand
ground motion. Implementation of this “few seconds engineering”
requires careful assessment of the false alarms or “cry wolf” and missed
alarm probabilities on the decision chain as discussed in the papers by
Grasso et al., and Iervolino et al. A second paper by Iervolino et al. discusses
several real-time engineering applications in the light of performance-
based earthquake engineering for risk reduction.
Finally in the last part of the volume four different earthquake early
warning systems are described, which are already in operation.
The first system to be operative in the world was the UrEDAS (Urgent
Earthquake Detection and Alarm System). It was implemented to protect
sections of the fast Japanese Railway Systems. The history of seismic early
warning since the original idea of J.F. Cooper in 1868, the development of
the UrEDAS system and a report of its performance are given by Nakamura
and Saita. The same authors also describe a portable device for onsite
early warning applications.
The early warning system implemented in Taiwan, described in the article
by Wu, is a regional system which can issue an alert after 22 sec from
the onset of an event. This gives a lead time of more than 10 sec to locations
more than 100 km away from the epicentre, and the application of a
novel processing method has the perspective of decreasing the processing
time to about 10 sec and the “blind” zone to about 25 km.
The system implemented in Romania was designed to protect mainly
Bucharest and some industrial structures from the intermediate depth
earthquakes originating in the Vrancea region. Some specific characteristics
of the seismic activity (such as the stationary epicentres, the stability
of radiation patterns) and a line-of-sight connection between the epicentral
area and the capital allowed a simple and robust system to be designed,
which is currently being tested to protect a nuclear power plant, as described
by Marmureanu et al.
The fourth system, described by Weber et al., is being implemented in
the Campanian Apennines, southern Italy, along the fault systems which
have been the source of many strong crustal earthquakes in previous centuries
(the last occurred in 1980). It is a local network broadcasting the signals
to the city of Naples, developed together with the Civil Protection of
the Campania Regional Authority.

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 楼主| wangjianping 发表于 2009-2-13 16:13:15 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 三T上人 于 2015-11-8 14:57 编辑 <br /><br />The systems described in this book do not cover all the existing operational
systems. For the sake of completeness, at least two further cases are
mentioned in the paper by Iunio Iervolino, Gaetano Manfredi and Edoardo
Cosenza in their review of engineering applications, namely the regional
system implemented to protect Mexico City and the local system designed
for the Ignalina nuclear power plant in Lithuania.
The seismic alert system (SAS) for Mexico City (Mexico) is an EEWS
for large earthquakes, which are likely to cause damage in Mexico City
and have their source in the subduction zone of the Pacific coast at a distance
of about 320 km. The warning time varies between 58 to 74 seconds.
Information received from the stations is processed automatically to determine
magnitude and is used in the decision to issue a public alert. The
Radio Warning System for users disseminates the seismic early audio
warnings via commercial radio stations and audio alerting mechanisms to
residents of Mexico City, public schools, government agencies with emergency
response functions, key utilities, public transit agencies and some
industries. During rush hours, approximately 4.4 million people are covered
by the system.
The seismic alarm system for the Ignalina nuclear power plant in
Lithuania consists of a Seismic Alarm System (SAS) designed to detect
potentially damaging earthquakes and to provide an alarm before the arrival
of the shear waves at the reactor. Six SAS stations are installed at a distance
of 30 km from the power plant forming an array, which is referred to
as a seismic "fence". An earthquake with an epicenter outside the fence is
detected about 4 seconds before it is "felt" by the reactor. The required
time to insert the control rods is 2 seconds. Potentially, the reactor could be
shut down before the earthquake arrives. At present, the SAS will only initiate
an alarm signal.
A few recent examples of practical use of earthquake early warning information
are shortly discussed in the review paper by Kanamori.
We hope that the contents of this book show convincingly that implementation
of effective earthquake early warning systems is scientifically
and technologically feasible. However, to be really effective any early
warning system must include three components:
1. the scientific-technological component that provides information on an
impending extreme event,
2. the decision making component that issues a warning, and
3. the response component that ensures an adequate response to the warning

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 楼主| wangjianping 发表于 2009-2-13 16:13:39 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 三T上人 于 2015-11-8 14:57 编辑 <br /><br />Today, the main problems in this warning chain occur as a result of inadequate
interaction between these different components. This is particularly
true for earthquake early warning. Even when the technological
means necessary for earthquake early warning, such as seismic instrumentation,
computerized systems and telecommunication, are in place, their
ability to serve the needs of disaster management and decision makers has
only been marginally exploited.
We have the feeling, shared by most of the scientific community, that
“end users”, such as civil defense organizations, industries and public administrators,
react very cautiously to the challenge issued by the scientific
community due to the complexity they foresee in activating the second and
third components of the earthquake early warning chain. Indeed, sound information
and education of the public and officials living in the “protected”
area are required in order to produce an effective increase in resilience.
In turn, close interaction between scientists, administrators and the public
is the path to follow to take full advantage of the developments offered
by science and technology to allow people to continue to live in areas
prone to natural hazards with an acceptable level of risk.
Paolo Gasparini
Gaetano Manfredi
Jochen Zschau
This volume was worked out in the framework of the EC FP6 Project No.
511264 “NaRAs” (Natural Risk Assessment) coordinated by AMRA, Napoli.

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 楼主| wangjianping 发表于 2009-2-13 16:13:57 | 显示全部楼层
Contents
Preface .......................................................................................................V
List of Contributors ..............................................................................XXI
1 Real-time Earthquake Damage Mitigation Measures .........................1
Hiroo Kanamori
Abstract............................................................................................... 1
1.1 Introduction ..................................................................................1
1.2 Post-Earthquake-Information and Earthquake Early Warning.....2
1.3 Implementation and Associated Problems....................................5
1.4 Basic Research on Seismology and Earthquake Early Warning ..7
References ..........................................................................................7
2 Can Earthquake Size be Controlled by the Initial Seconds
of Rupture?.................................................................................................9
Stefan Nielsen
Abstract...............................................................................................9
2.1 Introduction ..................................................................................9
2.2 Statement of the Problem ...........................................................10
2.3 Fracture, Barriers and Energy Concepts.....................................10
2.4 Defining and Quantifying Fracture Energy ................................12
2.5 Energy Flow, Moment Rate and Dominant Period ....................17
2.6 Predictive Statement on Final Rupture Size ...............................19
References ........................................................................................19
3 The ElarmS Earthquake Early Warning Methodology
and Application across California..........................................................21
Richard M. Allen
Abstract.............................................................................................21
3.1 Introduction ................................................................................22
3.2 The ElarmS Methodology ..........................................................23
3.2.1 Earthquake Location and Warning Time Estimation ..........23
3.2.2 Rapid Earthquake Magnitude Estimation............................24
3.2.3 Predicting the Distribution of Ground Shaking...................27
3.3 Accuracy and Timeliness of Warnings.......................................28
3.4 Warning Time Distributions for Northern California.................33
3.5 Earthquake Warning Outlook.....................................................40
3.6 Acknowledgments ......................................................................41
References ........................................................................................41
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4 Real-time Estimation of Earthquake Magnitude for Seismic
Early Warning .........................................................................................45
Aldo Zollo, Maria Lancieri
Abstract ............................................................................................45
4.1 Introduction ................................................................................45
4.2 Strong-Motion Data Analysis.....................................................49
4.2.1 The Italian Strong Motion Data Base..................................49
4.2.2 Measurements of Strong Ground-motion Quantities...........51
4.3 Discussion and Conclusions .......................................................58
4.4 Acknowledgements ....................................................................62
References ........................................................................................62
5 A New Approach to Earthquake Early Warning ..............................65
Maren B&ouml;se, Mustafa Erdik, Friedemann Wenzel
Abstract ............................................................................................65
5.1 Introduction ................................................................................66
5.2 Method........................................................................................68
5.3 Database .....................................................................................71
5.4 Results ........................................................................................74
5.5 Conclusions ................................................................................80
5.6 Acknowledgments ......................................................................81
References ........................................................................................ 81
6 Optimal, Real-time Earthquake Location for Early Warning .........85
Claudio Satriano, Anthony Lomax, Aldo Zollo
Abstract ............................................................................................85
6.1 Introduction ................................................................................85
6.2 Method........................................................................................87
6.2.1 Algorithm ............................................................................89
6.3 Location tests..............................................................................90
6.4 Discussion...................................................................................94
6.5 Acknowledgements ....................................................................95
References ........................................................................................95
7 The Virtual Seismologist (VS) Method: a Bayesian Approach
to Earthquake Early Warning................................................................97
Georgia Cua, Thomas Heaton
Abstract ............................................................................................97
7.1 Introduction ................................................................................98
7.2 Real-time Earthquake Source Estimation...................................99
7.2.1 Review of Bayes’ Theorem .................................................99
7.2.2 Defining the Likelihood Function, P(Yobs|M,loc)..............1
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7.2.3 Defining the Prior, P(M,loc)..............................................106
7.3 Applications of the VS Method to Selected Southern
California Earthquake Datasets ......................................................108
7.3.1 3 September 2002 M=4.75 Yorba Linda, California
Earthquake: High Station Density ..............................................108
7.3.2 16 October 1999 M7.1 Hector Mine, California
Earthquake: Low Station Density...............................................117
7.4 How Subscribers Might Use Early Warning Information ........121
7.5 Station Density and the Evolution of Estimate Uncertainties...124
7.6 Conclusions ..............................................................................130
7.7 Acknowledgements ..................................................................130
References ......................................................................................130
8 A Strong Motion Attenuation Relation for Early-warning
Application in the Campania Region (Southern Apennines).............133
Vincenzo Convertito, Raffaella De Matteis, Annalisa Romeo,
Aldo Zollo, Giovanni Iannaccone
Abstract...........................................................................................133
8.1 Introduction ..............................................................................134
8.2 Database and Scaling Laws ......................................................135
8.3 Peak Ground-motion Simulation ..............................................137
8.4 Regression Analysis .................................................................144
8.5 Conclusions ..............................................................................150
8.6 Acknowledgments ....................................................................151
References ......................................................................................151
9 Quantitative Seismic Hazard Assessment.........................................153
Jean Virieux, Pierre-Yves Bard, Hormoz Modaressi
Abstract...........................................................................................153
9.1 Introduction ..............................................................................154
9.2 Crustal and Surface Velocity Reconstruction Using
Passive and Active Data Acquisition Systems ...............................154
9.3 Source Description for a Given Seismo-tectonic Zone ............158
9.4 Challenging Issues of Seismic Wave Propagation in 3D
Heterogeneous Media.....................................................................160
9.4.1 Boundary Integral Equations.............................................161
9.4.2 Finite Difference-Finite Volume Methods ........................162
9.4.3 Finite Element Methods (Spectral Elements Approach) ...162
9.4.4 Discrete Element Methods (Distinct Element/Lattice
Approach)...................................................................................163
9.5 Quantification of the Dispersion of Ground Motion
Estimation.......................................................................................165
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9.5.1 Deterministic Modelling Approach and Sensitivity
Studies ........................................................................................165
9.5.2 Variability Estimates in Empirical Approaches ................166
9.5.3 Probabilistic Approach ......................................................167
9.6 Discussion and Conclusions .....................................................168
9.7 Acknowledgments ....................................................................169
References ......................................................................................169
10 Seismic Early Warning Systems: Procedure for Automated
Decision Making.....................................................................................179
Veronica F. Grasso, James L. Beck, Gaetano Manfredi
Abstract ..........................................................................................179
10.1 Introduction ............................................................................180
10.1.1 Potential Benefits of Seismic Early Warning Systems....181
10.1.2 Limitations of Effectiveness of Seismic Early
Warning Systems........................................................................182
10.2 Ground Motion Prediction Process in Seismic EWS .............184
10.2.1 Basic Idea of EWS Operation..........................................184
10.2.2 Sources of Uncertainty ....................................................185
10.2.3 Uncertainty propagation ..................................................187
10.3 Probability of Wrong Decisions: Pre-installation Analysis....188
10.3.1 Probabilities of False and Missed Alarms:
Pre-installation Analysis.............................................................188
10.3.2 Prior Information: Hazard Function ................................190
10.3.3 Probability of False Alarm: Pre-installation Analysis .....192
10.3.4 Probability of missed alarm: pre-installation analysis.....194
10.4 Threshold Design Based on Cost-Benefit Considerations......194
10.5 Decision Making in EWS during a Seismic Event.................197
10.5.1 Real-time Uncertainty Analysis during an Event ............197
10.5.2 Decision Making during the Seismic Event ....................199
10.6 Application of EWS ...............................................................200
10.6.1 Pre-installation Analysis: Southern California ................200
10.6.2 Yorba Linda Earthquake: M=4.75...................................205
10.7 Concluding Remarks ..............................................................207
References ......................................................................................208
11 The Crywolf Issue in Earthquake Early Warning
Applications for the Campania Region................................................211
Iunio Iervolino, Vincenzo Convertito, Massimiliano Giorgio,
Gaetano Manfredi, Aldo Zollo
Abstract ..........................................................................................211
11.1 Introduction ............................................................................212
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9.5.1 Deterministic Modelling Approach and Sensitivity
Studies ........................................................................................165
9.5.2 Variability Estimates in Empirical Approaches ................166
9.5.3 Probabilistic Approach ......................................................167
9.6 Discussion and Conclusions .....................................................168
9.7 Acknowledgments ....................................................................169
References ......................................................................................169
10 Seismic Early Warning Systems: Procedure for Automated
Decision Making.....................................................................................179
Veronica F. Grasso, James L. Beck, Gaetano Manfredi
Abstract ..........................................................................................179
10.1 Introduction ............................................................................180
10.1.1 Potential Benefits of Seismic Early Warning Systems....181
10.1.2 Limitations of Effectiveness of Seismic Early
Warning Systems........................................................................182
10.2 Ground Motion Prediction Process in Seismic EWS .............184
10.2.1 Basic Idea of EWS Operation..........................................184
10.2.2 Sources of Uncertainty ....................................................185
10.2.3 Uncertainty propagation ..................................................187
10.3 Probability of Wrong Decisions: Pre-installation Analysis....188
10.3.1 Probabilities of False and Missed Alarms:
Pre-installation Analysis.............................................................188
10.3.2 Prior Information: Hazard Function ................................190
10.3.3 Probability of False Alarm: Pre-installation Analysis .....192
10.3.4 Probability of missed alarm: pre-installation analysis.....194
10.4 Threshold Design Based on Cost-Benefit Considerations......194
10.5 Decision Making in EWS during a Seismic Event.................197
10.5.1 Real-time Uncertainty Analysis during an Event ............197
10.5.2 Decision Making during the Seismic Event ....................199
10.6 Application of EWS ...............................................................200
10.6.1 Pre-installation Analysis: Southern California ................200
10.6.2 Yorba Linda Earthquake: M=4.75...................................205
10.7 Concluding Remarks ..............................................................207
References ......................................................................................208
11 The Crywolf Issue in Earthquake Early Warning
Applications for the Campania Region................................................211
Iunio Iervolino, Vincenzo Convertito, Massimiliano Giorgio,
Gaetano Manfredi, Aldo Zollo
Abstract ..........................................................................................211
11.1 Introduction ............................................................................212
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9.5.1 Deterministic Modelling Approach and Sensitivity
Studies ........................................................................................165
9.5.2 Variability Estimates in Empirical Approaches ................166
9.5.3 Probabilistic Approach ......................................................167
9.6 Discussion and Conclusions .....................................................168
9.7 Acknowledgments ....................................................................169
References ......................................................................................169
10 Seismic Early Warning Systems: Procedure for Automated
Decision Making.....................................................................................179
Veronica F. Grasso, James L. Beck, Gaetano Manfredi
Abstract ..........................................................................................179
10.1 Introduction ............................................................................180
10.1.1 Potential Benefits of Seismic Early Warning Systems....181
10.1.2 Limitations of Effectiveness of Seismic Early
Warning Systems........................................................................182
10.2 Ground Motion Prediction Process in Seismic EWS .............184
10.2.1 Basic Idea of EWS Operation..........................................184
10.2.2 Sources of Uncertainty ....................................................185
10.2.3 Uncertainty propagation ..................................................187
10.3 Probability of Wrong Decisions: Pre-installation Analysis....188
10.3.1 Probabilities of False and Missed Alarms:
Pre-installation Analysis.............................................................188
10.3.2 Prior Information: Hazard Function ................................190
10.3.3 Probability of False Alarm: Pre-installation Analysis .....192
10.3.4 Probability of missed alarm: pre-installation analysis.....194
10.4 Threshold Design Based on Cost-Benefit Considerations......194
10.5 Decision Making in EWS during a Seismic Event.................197
10.5.1 Real-time Uncertainty Analysis during an Event ............197
10.5.2 Decision Making during the Seismic Event ....................199
10.6 Application of EWS ...............................................................200
10.6.1 Pre-installation Analysis: Southern California ................200
10.6.2 Yorba Linda Earthquake: M=4.75...................................205
10.7 Concluding Remarks ..............................................................207
References ......................................................................................208
11 The Crywolf Issue in Earthquake Early Warning
Applications for the Campania Region................................................211
Iunio Iervolino, Vincenzo Convertito, Massimiliano Giorgio,
Gaetano Manfredi, Aldo Zollo
Abstract ..........................................................................................211
11.1 Introduction ............................................................................212
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11.2 Seismic Risk Analysis Conditioned to the Earthquake
Early Warning System....................................................................214
11.2.1 EWWS-conditioned PSHA and PSDA............................215
11.2.2 Magnitude Estimate.........................................................216
11.2.3 Real-time Location and Distance PDF............................218
11.3 Decisional Rule, False and Missed Alarms ............................218
11.4 Simulation of the SAMS Earthquake Early Warning
System ............................................................................................220
11.4.1 Event and Ground Motion Feature Generation ...............221
11.4.2 Station Measurements and M,R Real-time
Distributions ...............................................................................223
11.4.3 Seismic Risk Analysis .....................................................225
11.4.4 False and Missed Alarm Probabilities .............................227
11.5 Conclusions ............................................................................229
11.6 Acknowledgements ................................................................230
References ......................................................................................230
12 Earthquake Early Warning and Engineering Application
Prospects.................................................................................................233
Iunio Iervolino, Gaetano Manfredi, Edoardo Cosenza
Abstract...........................................................................................233
12.1 Specific vs. Regional EEWS ..................................................234
12.2 Real-Time Seismology and Hybrid Systems..........................237
12.3 Applicability Potential of EEWS............................................240
12.4 Beyond the False Alarms: the Loss Estimation Approach
to Early Warning ............................................................................242
12.5 Concluding Remarks: Future Prospects of Seismic Early
Warning Engineering......................................................................245
References ......................................................................................246
13 UrEDAS, the Earthquake Warning System:
Today and Tomorrow............................................................................249
Yutaka Nakamura, Jun Saita
Abstract...........................................................................................249
13.1 Introduction ............................................................................250
13.2 The History of Early Warning ................................................252
13.2.1 The First Concept of Early Warning ...............................252
13.2.2 Earthquake Alarm for Railways ......................................252
13.2.3 Birth of UrEDAS.............................................................255
13.2.4 After the Kobe earthquake...............................................255
13.3 UrEDAS .................................................................................258
13.3.1 UrEDAS Functions..........................................................258
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13.3.2 Estimation of Magnitude and Location ...........................258
13.3.3 Vulnerability Assessment and Warning Based
on M-&#1049083; Relation.........................................................................263
13.4 Compact UrEDAS ..................................................................264
13.4.1 Assessment Index for Vulnerability of Strong Motion ...264
13.4.2 Alarms of Compact UrEDAS Based on Destructive
Intensity and Acceleration Level................................................266
13.5 Operating Conditions..............................................................266
13.5.1 Overview of the Operating Conditions............................266
13.5.2 Practical Use....................................................................268
13.5.3 Research UrEDAS Worldwide........................................276
13.6 Challenges for Earlier Estimation with High Accuracy .........277
13.7 Conclusion..............................................................................278
13.8 Acknowledgment....................................................................279
References ......................................................................................280
Appendix ........................................................................................281
14 State of the Art and Progress in the Earthquake Early
Warning System in Taiwan...................................................................283
Yih-Min Wu, Nai-Chi Hsiao, William H.K. Lee, Ta-liang Teng,
Tzay-Chyn Shin
Abstract ..........................................................................................283
14.1 Introduction ............................................................................284
14.2 Physical Basis for Earthquake Early Warning
and its Benefits ...............................................................................285
14.3 Progress in Earthquake Early Warning in Taiwan .................286
14.4 Current Regional Warning System.........................................288
14.4.1 Rapid Local Magnitude Determination – ML10 Method ..288
14.4.2 Sub-network Approach....................................................289
14.4.3 Virtual Sub-Network (VSN) Approach...........................293
14.5 Onsite Warning Methods........................................................298
14.6. Prospects................................................................................303
14.7 Acknowledgements ................................................................304
References ......................................................................................304
15 FREQL and AcCo for a Quick Response to Earthquakes............307
Yutaka Nakamura, Jun Saita
Abstract ..........................................................................................307
15.1 Introduction ............................................................................308
15.2 Real-time Seismology and Real-time Earthquake
Engineering as a Disaster Prevention Tool.....................................310
15.3 Proposal for a Reasonable Earthquake Index for the Alarm ..311
Contents
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15.3.1 DI Value and the Other Strong Motion Indices...............311
15.3.2 Relationship between Ijma, SI Value and 5HzPGA........313
15.3.3 Proposal of RI Value and Relationship with Ijma...........315
15.3.4 Proposal of Instrumental MMI ........................................316
15.4 AcCo.......................................................................................318
15.4.1 Overview of AcCo...........................................................318
15.4.2 Alarm Timing by a Simple Trigger Method....................320
15.5 FREQL ...................................................................................322
15.5.1 Overview of FREQL .......................................................322
15.5.2 Application of FREQL ....................................................323
15.6 Conclusion..............................................................................324
References ......................................................................................324
16 Development and Testing of an Advanced Monitoring
Infrastructure (ISNet) for Seismic Early-warning Applications
in the Campania Region of Southern Italy ..........................................325
Emanuel Weber, Giovanni Iannaccone, Aldo Zollo,
Antonella Bobbio, Luciana Cantore, Margherita Corciulo,
Vincenzo Convertito, Martino Di Crosta, Luca Elia,
Antonio Emolo, Claudio Martino, Annalisa Romeo,
Claudio Satriano
Abstract...........................................................................................325
16.1 Introduction ............................................................................326
16.2 ISNet Architecture and Site Installation .................................327
16.2.1 Seismic Stations and the Local Control Centers .............329
16.2.2 Sensors and Data-logger..................................................329
16.2.3 Current Data Communication Configuration ..................331
16.2.4 RISSC Network Control Center ......................................333
16.3 Early-warning Prototype.........................................................334
16.3.1 New Seismic Stations ......................................................334
16.3.2 Data Communication Enhancements
for Early-warning Purposes........................................................336
16.3.3 General Overview of Network Management...................337
References ......................................................................................341
17 An Early Warning System for Deep Vrancea (Romania)
Earthquakes ...........................................................................................343
Constantin Ionescu, Maren B&ouml;se, Friedemann Wenzel,
Alexandru Marmureanu, Adrian Grigore, Gheorghe Marmureanu
Abstract...........................................................................................343
References ......................................................................................349
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等待上传
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等待上传
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mg600600 发表于 2009-3-3 16:37:57 | 显示全部楼层
收下了,谢谢!
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landslide 发表于 2009-3-23 09:20:08 | 显示全部楼层
不错的资料,搞起来
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xml00 发表于 2009-4-4 14:48:57 | 显示全部楼层
不知预测的效果如何?
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arctjan88 发表于 2009-12-10 13:17:55 | 显示全部楼层
183237-10-embed.jpg
下载资料无法解压
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gilliant 发表于 2009-12-22 21:46:57 | 显示全部楼层
第四部分出错了,下下来只有812kB,楼主你要负责了!!!!!!!!!!
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thming 发表于 2010-1-6 09:46:16 | 显示全部楼层
地震预报是指望不上了,还是多想想来了地震怎么办比较现实
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arctjan88 发表于 2010-1-12 21:20:43 | 显示全部楼层
为什么不把资料不上去
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scloss84 发表于 2010-9-16 08:18:01 | 显示全部楼层
thanks for sharing!! money spending spree now
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scloss84 发表于 2010-9-16 08:23:35 | 显示全部楼层
楼主好心可以再上传part 4 吗,我也是不能解压
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newnew 发表于 2010-10-15 14:40:26 | 显示全部楼层
part 4 是否有問題?
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张百战 发表于 2010-10-15 16:02:02 | 显示全部楼层
好东西,抓紧看。
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buckle 发表于 2010-10-18 18:03:15 | 显示全部楼层
part 4下載很多次了,都有問題...
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buckle 发表于 2010-10-18 18:04:03 | 显示全部楼层
拜託,處理一下。
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civil426 发表于 2011-6-13 20:07:34 | 显示全部楼层
第4个文件出错,不能解压。楼主要尽快解决啊。
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miaorenfeng 发表于 2011-11-27 09:47:05 | 显示全部楼层
没有附件?
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miaorenfeng 发表于 2011-11-27 09:51:51 | 显示全部楼层
只给了目录吗
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miaorenfeng 发表于 2011-11-27 09:52:41 | 显示全部楼层
好资料
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miaorenfeng 发表于 2011-11-27 09:52:58 | 显示全部楼层
防患未然很重要
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fennpig 发表于 2013-5-27 16:45:34 | 显示全部楼层
好书,正需要呢,谢谢楼主哈
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fennpig 发表于 2013-5-30 10:22:50 | 显示全部楼层
快快下载啊!
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fennpig 发表于 2013-5-31 14:24:09 | 显示全部楼层
第4部分出错呀,拜托楼主重新上传一下啊!
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