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本帖最后由 三T上人 于 2015-11-8 14:57 编辑 <br /><br />seismic recordings. Satriano et al. present an evolutionary method for realtime
location based on the equal differential time formulation and a probabilistic
approach.
Along with the development of appropriate real-time algorithms, it is
crucial to develop a strategy for rapidly communicating the obtained seismic
information not only to the disaster managers, but also to other interested
parties from civil protection, politics, media, science and the public.
The warning time involved in this task may, however, have to be extended
to minutes, tens of minutes or more. Of special importance for emergency
planners will be the concept of the virtual seismologist, which takes into
account pre-existing information to estimate and possibly reduce the uncertainties
of source parameter determinations, and which, in particular,
can deduce from the source parameter information specific decision support
for disaster management, as discussed in the paper by Georgia Cua
and Thomas Heaton.
The evolutionary method and the virtual seismologist concept are very
useful for providing continuously upgraded real-time alert maps and predicted
shake maps within seconds and minutes as well as maps of measured
ground shaking within a few minutes after the event. The development
of proper attenuation algorithms, as discussed by Vincenzo
Convertito et al., is crucial in order to also account for site corrections in
such maps. Maps of expected ground motion before a catastrophic event
for various scenarios are useful information to design the way effects of
ground vibrations on structures can be reduced as well as for fast map calibration
once the event occurs. 3D simulations of ground response and the
key parameters needed to optimize the probabilistic approach are discussed
by Jean Virieux et al.
Earthquake Early Warning Systems are efficient tools in urban areas
where a significant portion of the buildings are structurally deficient. In
cases where the seismic source zone is clearly known and sufficiently far
away, the population can be warned by radio, television, etc. Operation of
critical facilities and processes can be stopped. In the case of very short
pre-warning times of a few seconds, it is still possible to slow down trains,
to switch traffic lights to red, to close valves in gas and oil pipelines, to release
a SCRAM in nuclear power plants, etc. Early warning systems can
also be used to alarm the population where rapid response is needed. A
typical example would be to issue the so-called water alarm, i.e. alarming
the population living in the downstream region of a large dam. Early warning
systems are useful for facilities and processes, such as nuclear power
plants, high speed trains, gas mains and highways, where rapid response
can contribute to reduction in the seismic risk.
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