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2007世界风能发展总结(跟帖附原件)

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wistreer 发表于 2008-4-12 21:42:41 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 三T上人 于 2016-7-22 19:37 编辑 <br /><br />2007世界风能发展总结
    本文是世界观察研究所关于07年世界风能发展的一个总结。文中所引用的数据都有索引,但是查阅图表和索引都需要付费,所以翻译后为了阅读方便去掉了索引。世界风能在未来20年的持续高速增长几乎是一定的,对其发展最重要的影响因素是政府政策导向和技术的成熟度。以后生态城还会有若干关于中国风能现状和前景的讨论,敬请关注与参与。
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Wind Power Continues Rapid Rise
    世界风能装机持续增长       by Janet L. Sawin
    世界风能总发电装机在2007年底达到了94,100兆瓦,比上年增长了27%,之后在2008年4月达到100,000兆瓦的顶峰。2007年内新装的大约20.000兆瓦比2006年的总装机量超出了31%。在美国,作为新电能来源的风能,装机容量仅次于天然气,而在欧盟,风能则处于新能源的领头羊地位。
    美国新装机总量连续三年处于世界领先地位,不断刷新的记录到达了5,244兆瓦,累计装机增长率达45%。去年美国的新发电装机总量中,风能占了30%, 与之形成鲜明对比的是5年前只有1%。美国全国的风机装机总量达到了16,818兆瓦,仅次于德国位居世界第二。这些风机组可以为4百50万户家庭提供电能。07年的迅猛增长应该归功于联邦生产退税,以及华盛顿特区和25个州对于可再生能源的政策支持。虽然联邦退税到08年底就该过期了,但是大都认为还会延续。德克萨斯州是美国风力发电的领头羊,去年生产了美国风电的30%,不过现在有6个州已经各自上马了超过1,000兆瓦的风机项目。
    2007年欧洲的风电装机增长了18%,许多国家都破了纪录。在欧洲,风电大约占了新发电装机的40%。合计8,554兆瓦的装机总量比2006年增长了12%,使得欧洲的风电总装机达到了56,535兆瓦。在正常风力年份,这一容量可以满足该地区电力需求的4%,每年减少CO2排放9千万吨。在过去的几年中,第一次,欧洲的年度风电市场降到了全球总量的一半以下,新装机合计占了全球的43%,但是欧洲依然维持着全球累计总装机容量的60%。
    德国依然维持着世界风电装机的领袖地位,总容量达到22,247兆瓦,大约为全球总量的24%。但2007年德国风电市场遭遇了明显的减速。上涨的风机价格与风电销售回款的失败,使得德国市场比起美国和英国来失色许多。德国目前面临着陆上风电场选址不足的问题,2007年仅新装了1,667兆瓦,比前一年减少了25%。与之形成对照的是,德国从可再生能源获取的电能(其中一半来自风能)依然在迅速增长。来自风能的电力相当于德国2007年电力总消费的7.2%。北部多风的Schleswig-Holstein州现在的目标是在2020年全部的电力都要来自风能,比今天提升30%。

    西班牙在2007年欧洲的新装机中位于领先地位,在世界范围的风电总装机中排行第三。去年估计大约安装了3,552兆瓦,使得全国的总装机达到了15,145兆瓦,可以满足西班牙全国电力需求的10%。欧洲的其他国家在2007年都经历的风电的显著增长,法国(新增888兆瓦),意大利(603兆瓦),葡萄牙(434兆瓦),以及英国(427兆瓦)。这些国家现在的总装机容量都远超过了2,000兆瓦。但是英国和葡萄牙的增长却比2006年要缓慢。尽管欧洲(主要是德国和西班牙)以及美国现在占有了世界风机总装机量的78%,但从澳大利亚到津巴布韦,已经有超过70个国家都开始向风能发电迈进了。

    最大的惊喜来自中国。三年前中国在世界风电行业还默默无闻,2007年的装机量却站在了美国和西班牙的后面,而总装机量也排到了世界第五。据估计,中国2007年的装机量为3,449兆瓦,使这一时刻的总装机达到了6,050兆瓦,已经超出了政府2010年的目标(译者按:中国2010年的风电装机规划为5,000兆瓦)。(但是由于计划设计问题,据估计这其中四分之一的风机还没有与电网连接)。2008年又有4,000兆瓦等待安装,基于目前的增长速度,中国的可再生能源工业协会预测中国的风电总装机会在2015年超过50,000兆瓦。

   在亚洲其他地方,印度新安装了1,730兆瓦,总装机量大约为8,000兆瓦,仍居世界第四。其他地区和国家也经历的显著的增长,包括加拿大(新增386兆瓦),新西兰(151兆瓦);在拉美,巴西新增了161兆瓦,智利则安装了18兆瓦;在北非,埃及安装了80兆瓦。

   这些急剧的增长带来了风机严重短缺的冲突。一个风机大概需要8000个部件,这其中许多部件的供应商需要数年的时间来提升产能。美国受到部件短缺的影响尤其严重,诸多的项目都因此而陷于停顿。结果,一些资金充裕并且有眼光于制定新行业规则的欧洲公司开始全额收购小公司与机构,以此在美国由广阔空间提供的巨大市场上获得立足点。
    制造商们目前在调节配置以增加齿轮箱,叶片和其他部件的生产,希望这可以在2009年的某个时候消除风机供应不足。但是在短期内,风机的缺乏却可以推动这一工业的增长速度。
    这些成长的烦恼已经影响到了风能经济上。在过去的15年里,风力发电的成本已经减少了50美分,与此同时效率,可靠性和功率都经历了显著的进步。但是近几年发电成本由于风机的短缺、材料成本的上涨和制造商利润生产能力的增强而增加。(在美国,成本的增加还要归咎于由于美元兑欧元的相对贬值。)与高成本相反,风能和新的天然气电厂相比仍保持有竞争力,而且传统的电厂也都在经历建造成本的上涨。伴随着越来越多的国家对煤炭的加价,风能将会变得更加有竞争力。

   2007年,全球风能市场据估计总价值达到360亿美元,几乎占了去年所有对可再生能源发电与热能投资的一半。目前,全世界大约有20万人受雇于风能工业。这些数据在今年只会增长。

   欧盟承诺要在2020年使用可再生能源提供20%的初级能源(译者按:又称一次能源),也就是说在这一地区,可再生能源要在12年后提供35%的电力,比2007年增长15%。风能被认为会是增长的主要部分。其他如美国,中国以及很多国家也有极大的潜力。

   过去的一些预测一直在鼓吹着风能工业,例如BTM Consult ApS 咨询公司2002年曾预计全球的总装机会在2007年会达到83,000兆瓦,可还是比现在已经达到的94,100兆瓦要少很多,并且以前的预测还认为增长要持续很多年。
(敬请关注跟帖附件)

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 楼主| wistreer 发表于 2008-4-12 21:47:26 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 三T上人 于 2016-7-22 19:37 编辑 <br /><br />原文:
Wind Power Continues Rapid Rise
by Janet L. Sawin
Global wind power capacity reached 94,100 megawatts by the end of 2007, up 27 percent from the previous year, and then topped 100,000 megawatts by April 2008.1 (See Figure 1.) The roughly 20,000 megawatts installed in 2007 was 31 percent above the 2006 record for capacity additions.2 (See Figure 2.) New wind installa&shy;tions were second only to natural gas in the United States as an additional source of power capacity and were the leading source of new capacity in the European Union (EU).3
The United States led the world in new installations for the third year in a row with a record-shattering 5,244 megawatts of wind capacity added, increasing cumulative installed capacity by 45 percent.4 (See Figure 3.) Wind power represented 30 percent of new U.S. capacity additions last year, compared with 1 percent of the total just five years earlier.5 The nation's wind capacity now totals 16,818 mega&shy;watts, second only to Germany, and is enough to power 4.5 million U.S. homes.6 The surge in 2007 was driven by the federal production tax credit and by renewable energy mandates in 25 states and the District of Columbia.7 The federal credit is due to expire at the end of 2008, though an extension is widely expected. Texas is the nation's top wind power generator, with 30 percent of total U.S. wind production last year, but six states now each have more than 1,000 megawatts of installed capacity.8
Wind capacity in the European Union rose 18 percent in 2007, with new records in several countries.9 Wind power accounted for about 40 percent of new power installations across Europe.10 Additions of 8,554 mega&shy;watts-an increase of 12 percent over 2006 installations-brought the EU's total to 56,535 megawatts.11 Total wind capacity installed in Europe by the end of 2007 was enough to meet nearly 4 percent of the region's electricity demand in an average wind year and will avoid about 90 million tons of carbon dioxide emis&shy;sions annually.12 For the first time in several years, Europe's wind market dropped below half of the global total as the EU accounted for only 43 percent of new additions worldwide; but Europe still has 60 percent of total global capacity.13
Germany remains the world leader in wind power capacity, with a total of 22,247 mega&shy;watts, almost 24 percent of the global total.14 However, Germany's wind market experienced a signifi&shy;cant slowdown in 2007. Rising turbine prices in conjunction with falling payments to wind-generated electricity have temporarily made the German market less attractive to developers than the U.S. and British markets are; Germany has also experienced an increasing scarcity of good onshore sites.15 Only 1,667 megawatts of new capacity were installed in 2007, 25 percent less than added during the previous year.16 Despite this, the share of electricity that Ger&shy;many obtained from renewable sources-half of which comes from wind power-continues its rapid rise.17 Wind power generated the equivalent of 7.2 percent of Germany's electricity consump&shy;tion in 2007.18 Windy northern Schleswig-Holstein now aims for the wind to generate all of that state's power by 2020, up from 30 percent today.19
Spain led Europe in new installations in 2007, now ranking third worldwide in total wind capacity. An estimated 3,522 megawatts were added last year, bringing the nation's total to 15,145 megawatts, enough to meet 10 percent of Spain's electricity needs.20
Other countries in Europe that experienced significant growth in 2007 include France (888 megawatts added), Italy (603), Portugal (434), and the United Kingdom (427), and each of these countries now has total capacity of well over 2,000 megawatts.21 The United Kingdom and Portugal, however, both experienced slower growth than in 2006.22
Although Europe (mostly Germany and Spain) and the United States now account for 78 per&shy;cent of the world's installed wind power capacity, more than 70 nations-from Australia to Zimbabwe-now tap the wind to produce electricity.23
The biggest surprise is China, which was barely in the wind business three years ago but which in 2007 trailed only the United States and Spain in wind installations and was fifth in total installed capacity.24 An estimated 3,449 mega&shy;watts of wind turbines were added in 2007, bringing China's provisional total to 6,050 megawatts and already exceeding the govern&shy;ment's target for 2010.25 (An estimated one fourth of this capacity is still not connected to the grid, however, due to planning problems.)26 Another 4,000 megawatts are expected to be added in 2008 and, based on current growth rates, the Chinese Renewable Energy Industry Association predicts that China's wind capacity could reach 50,000 megawatts by 2015.27
Elsewhere in Asia, India added 1,730 megawatts of new capacity and continues to rank fourth overall for total installations, with an estimated 8,000 megawatts.28 Other regions and countries experiencing significant growth include Canada (added 386 megawatts), New Zealand (151), Latin America, where Brazil added 161 mega&shy;watts and Chile installed about 18 megawatts, and northern Africa, where Egypt added 80 mega&shy;watts.29
These dramatic increases in capacity took place against a backdrop of serious turbine shortages. Wind turbines require some 8,000 components, and suppliers of many of these parts need years to ramp up production.30 Parts shortages have affected the United States in particular, where numerous projects have been put on hold.31 As a result, several Euro&shy;pean companies that had the funds and fore&shy;sight to lock in orders of new machines have taken this opportunity to buy up smaller companies and utilities to gain a foothold in the United States, where wide open spaces promise an enormous future market.32
Manufacturers are now positioning them&shy;selves to increase production of gearboxes, rotors, and other components, and it is expected that this will eliminate the turbine shortage by sometime in 2009.33 For the short term, how&shy;ever, the turbine shortage could dictate how quickly the industry will grow.34
These growing pains have affected the economics of wind power. Over the past 15 years, the costs of wind-generated electricity have dropped by 50 percent, while efficiency, reliability, and power rating have all experi&shy;enced significant improvements.35 But costs have increased in recent years due to the tur&shy;bine shortage, rising material costs, and increased manufacturing profitability.36 (In the United States, costs have also risen thanks to the falling value of the dollar relative to the euro.) Despite the higher costs, wind power remains competitive with new natural gas plants, and all conventional plants have seen similar construction cost increases.37 Wind power will become increas&shy;ingly competitive with coal as more countries put a price on carbon.
The global wind market was estimated to be worth about $36 billion in 2007, accounting for nearly half of all investments in new renewable power and heating capacity last year.38 As many as 200,000 people around the world are currently employed by the wind industry.39 These numbers will only rise in coming years.
The EU is now committed to generating 20 percent of its primary energy with renewables by 2020, which means that these sources will need to provide about 35 percent of the region's electricity in 12 years, up from 15 percent in 2007.40 Wind power is expected to account for most of that increase.41 And the potential for the United States, China, and many other countries is enormous.
The wind industry has consistently blown by past projections-BTM Consult ApS, for example, forecast in 2002 that global capacity would reach 83,000 megawatts by the end of 2007, far short of the 94,100 megawatts that it actually did achieve-and it could continue to do so for years to come.42
Purchase this trendItem# Type Price  
VST108 PDF and Excel $10.00 Add to Cart
Includes the following charts and graphs
World Wind Energy Generating Capacity, 1980-2007
Annual Additions to World Energy Generating Capacity, 1980-2007
Annual Wind Energy Additions in China, Germany, Spain, and the United States, 1980-2007
Notes
Please purchase this trend to gain access to the fully referenced endnotes and figures.

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ljmtidilgw 发表于 2008-4-12 21:51:45 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 三T上人 于 2016-7-22 19:37 编辑 <br /><br />谢谢专家,这么齐全的资料。
不知道中国的风能利用如何?在新疆有几个风口,有风力发电站,估计内蒙也有!
由于温室效应,发达国家和发展中国家都纷纷研讨能源利用问题,绿色能源等,其中太阳能利用、风力发电、潮汐发电等都在其中。核能是一个有争议的能源方案!

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wqh555 发表于 2008-4-12 22:36:45 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 三T上人 于 2016-7-22 19:37 编辑 <br /><br />内蒙有!

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 楼主| wistreer 发表于 2008-4-12 22:44:13 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 三T上人 于 2016-7-22 19:37 编辑 <br /><br />附件一是绿色和平参与组织的一个《中国风电发展报告 2007》,涵盖的方面比较全,感兴趣的朋友可以当作一个中国风能状况的普及读本看看。同时还可以参考阅读附件二世界风能委员会(GWEC)编写的《Global Wind Report 2007》。

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中国风电发展报告2007.pdf

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 楼主| wistreer 发表于 2008-4-12 22:49:49 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 三T上人 于 2016-7-22 19:37 编辑 <br /><br />附件二,没压缩分卷,传输好慢

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Global_Wind_2007_Report_final.pdf

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winterguo 发表于 2008-4-25 15:07:35 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 三T上人 于 2016-7-22 19:37 编辑 <br /><br />hao !!!

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jieqiuchen 发表于 2008-5-1 22:57:04 | 显示全部楼层

很好

本帖最后由 三T上人 于 2016-7-22 19:37 编辑 <br /><br />很好的文啊

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jieqiuchen 发表于 2008-5-1 23:00:33 | 显示全部楼层

很好的文啊

本帖最后由 三T上人 于 2016-7-22 19:37 编辑 <br /><br />真好

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yhwlucky 发表于 2008-7-21 17:24:00 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 三T上人 于 2016-7-22 19:37 编辑 <br /><br />很不错的东西

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yhwlucky 发表于 2008-7-21 17:26:04 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 三T上人 于 2016-7-22 19:37 编辑 <br /><br />我发现这个论坛里的很多东西都很不错
以后要更多关注了

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yxyyxy 发表于 2008-11-30 12:38:22 | 显示全部楼层
这东西不错,谢谢
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flyingegg 发表于 2014-1-31 06:14:35 | 显示全部楼层
一楼的位置好啊..  
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